Kenya is rewriting the law that governs your money
Treasury and the CBK have published a draft Bill to replace Kenya's 2011-era payments law. It would license ten kinds of payment firm, set capital floors, ring-fence your wallet balance and let the CBK force rivals to connect. Comments close 9 October.
Where Kenya stands
as of 2 October 2026Verified figures are taken from the primary source named on each tile and carry the date that source published them. Tiles marked awaiting source stay empty until we can cite them — we would rather show you a gap than a number we cannot stand behind.
The Hook
What happenedOn 21 September the National Treasury and the Central Bank of Kenya published a draft National Payment System Policy and the National Payment System Bill, 2026, and opened both to public comment. The Bill would repeal the National Payment System Act, Cap. 491A — the law Kenya's payments market has run on through the entire mobile money era. Comments close on 9 October. If it passes in anything close to this form, it changes who is allowed to touch your money, and on what terms.
The Kenya Angle
Why Kenya caresFact. The CBK's public notice says the Bill sets out to repeal Cap. 491A and build "an effective and efficient legal framework that promotes market integrity, encourages innovation and competition." Reporting on the draft text describes licence categories for ten kinds of payment firm, minimum capital for each, customer balances held in segregated trust accounts at licensed banks, a CBK power to compel interoperability between competitors, and "open finance" — a duty to share customer data with licensed third parties when the customer consents.
Analysis. Small providers face a capital floor and a compliance function they may not have — a barrier to entry dressed as a safety rule, and it will thin the long tail. Everyone else gains optionality: if a lender or a budgeting app can read your M-Pesa and bank history with your consent, what locks you in stops being your data and starts having to be your price.
What to Watch
What matters next1 — 9 October. Whether Safaricom, the Kenya Bankers Association and the fintech lobby file public positions, and which clauses they attack. The capital ladder and the data-sharing duty are the two most likely to be fought.
2 — The instant payment switch. Treasury has floated a national switch. Watch for whether it stays in the final Bill or drops into separate regulations, where it is easier to delay.
3 — The regulations. The Bill leaves the detail of what data is shareable, on what terms and at what cost to rules issued later. That is where this is either real or decorative.
4 — Parliament's calendar. A draft published for comment is not a law. Track it to First Reading before believing any of it.
Interview Edge
How to use it"Kenya has just published a draft Bill to replace its payments law, with licensing and minimum capital for ten categories of payment firm. If you were advising a small fintech, what would worry you most about it?"
- Whether you can separate the consumer benefit from the firm-level cost, rather than calling the whole thing good or bad.
- Whether you understand minimum capital as a barrier to entry as well as a solvency buffer.
- Whether you can name a trade-off and pick a side without pretending the other side is stupid.
"The capital requirement, not the paperwork. A minimum capital floor is a solvency rule, but it is also an entry barrier — it prices out exactly the small providers that make a market contestable, which cuts against the Bill's own stated goal of encouraging competition. The offset is open finance: if my client can read a customer's bank and wallet history with consent, they can compete on product instead of on distribution. So I would tell them the Bill is survivable if the data-sharing regulations arrive with teeth and on time. If those slip and the capital floor lands anyway, they get the cost without the upside."
"Isn't a capital floor just prudent?" — It is, for a firm holding customer funds. The question is whether it is calibrated to the risk each licence category actually carries, or set high enough that it quietly clears the field.
"Who wins here?" — On the draft as reported, incumbents with capital already in place, and any third party that can build on someone else's customer relationship. The squeeze is on subscale providers holding client money.
Also in this week's Brief
The CBK told us what banking actually earned. The 2025 Bank Supervision Annual Report, published 22 September, puts sector assets at KSh 8.35 trillion (up 10.3%), customer deposits at KSh 6.12 trillion (up 11.6%) and profit before tax at KSh 306.3 billion — up KSh 46.0 billion, or 17.7%. Gross NPLs improved to 16.0% from 17.1%. Capital adequacy was 20.7% against a 14.5% minimum and average liquidity 59.3% against 20%. Read the profit line carefully: the report attributes the increase to expenses falling faster than income, which is a cost story, not a growth story. Separately, Switch TV reports the same document flagged 35 banks for breaches of prudential rules, against 11 in 2024 — a figure we could not locate in the pages we read and are therefore reporting as coverage, not as fact.
Access Bank's two Kenyan entities become one. On 23 September the CBK announced the transfer of the business, assets and liabilities of Access Bank (Kenya) PLC to National Bank of Kenya Limited — approved under section 13(4) of the Banking Act on 17 August, with the Cabinet Secretary's approval under section 9(1) on 21 September, as reported by The Star. Access Bank PLC has owned NBK since buying it from KCB Group in May 2025, so this is a group tidying up rather than a new deal. The interesting part for anyone studying Kenyan banking is consolidation direction: 39 banks is still a lot for this market.
The NSE took it back, then gave a little away. NSE market statistics put the All Share Index at 248.51 on 25 September, with market capitalisation at KSh 4,170.52 billion. That followed a hard sell-off the week before — NASI down 4.96% and roughly KSh 336 billion of value gone in the week to 17 September, per the CBK Weekly Bulletin as reported by People Daily. Standard Investment Bank's weekly wrap dated 28 September has NASI up 4.1% on its week, with foreign participation rising to 30.1% and Equity Group up 8.6%. By 29 September the index had eased back to 245.85 and capitalisation to KSh 4,125.87 billion. Three weeks, three directions, no new fundamental news in between — a useful reminder that a weekly index move is mostly flows.
The government is borrowing at just under 9%. CBK Treasury bill auction results dated 28 September show weighted average accepted rates of 8.7781% on the 91-day, 8.8949% on the 182-day and 9.0431% on the 364-day. The CBK is also reopening two bonds for a combined KSh 100 billion — FXD3/2019/015 at a 12.34% coupon and FXD1/2019/020 at 12.873% — with bids closing 30 September and settlement on 5 October, as reported by The Kenya Times from the CBK offer. Note the shape: the government pays around 9% for a year of money while the CBR sits at 8.75%. Short-dated government paper is not a bargain right now; the yield is in the long end.
The shilling has not moved, again. The CBK's indicative rate was 129.76 to the dollar posted 29 September. The CBK Weekly Bulletin for the week to 24 September had 129.48, with reserves at about KSh 1.95 trillion and 6.1 months of import cover, and KESONIA unchanged at 8.75%, as reported by People Daily. For context, not as this week's news: Business Daily reported in December 2025 that the shilling had held near 129 for 16 months and that the IMF had questioned whether that stability was interfering with monetary policy transmission.
Milk is the inflation story nobody indexed. Formal milk intake fell to 81.32 million litres in July, down 3.7% from June and 5.8% year on year — Kenya Dairy Board data, as reported by The Kenyan Wall Street, which also notes a KDB statement of 1 September saying preliminary August data pointed to a further decline. Dry weather, fodder shortages and feed costs are the named causes. Watch this against the September CPI: food is the heaviest basket weight, and a supply squeeze in a staple shows up in the number your parents feel before it shows up in the one economists quote.
Dangote in Lamu — treat as announced, not built. The Kenyan Wall Street reports Dangote is expected to break ground on a KSh 2.2 trillion refinery at Lamu on Wednesday 30 September, with a 1,000MW power plant attached, and that financing would come from internal cash flow, bonds and proceeds of the Lagos refinery IPO, per Reuters. Ownership structure is unresolved; an offer of a 10% Kenyan stake at US$500 million has been reported but not confirmed. A groundbreaking is a photograph. The things worth tracking are the financing close and the offtake terms.
We show our work
- Central Bank of Kenya — Public Notice: Draft National Payment System Policy and National Payment System Bill, 2026, 21 September 2026. https://www.centralbank.go.ke/2026/09/21/draft-national-payment-system-policy-and-national-payment-system-bill-2026/ — the fact of publication, the repeal of Cap. 491A, the policy objectives. Verified against the notice on 30 September 2026. The notice itself does not state the comment deadline; the 9 October date comes from the reporting below.
- Techweez, 22 September 2026. https://techweez.com/2026/09/22/kenya-national-payment-system-bill-2026/ — reported provisions on open finance, data sharing, interoperability, the instant payment switch and the reported minimum capital ladder; the 9 October comment deadline.
- The Kenya Times, 22 September 2026. https://thekenyatimes.com/latest-kenya-times-news/treasury-cbk-seek-public-views-on-new-national-payment-system-bill-2026/ — corroborates the 9 October deadline and the interoperability and open finance provisions.
- Kenyans.co.ke, 22 September 2026. https://www.kenyans.co.ke/news/127253-cbk-proposes-new-rules-payment-providers-fintechs-and-digital-wallets — reported trust-account and penalty provisions.
- Vellum Kenya, 26 September 2026. https://vellum.co.ke/skin-in-the-game-new-requirement-for-minimum-capital-under-the-national-payment-system-bill-2026/ — legal analysis of the capital requirement and the ten licence categories.
- Central Bank of Kenya — Bank Supervision Annual Report 2025, published 22 September 2026. https://www.centralbank.go.ke/uploads/banking_sector_annual_reports/1241268828_ANNUAL%20REPORT%202025.pdf — sector assets, deposits, profit before tax, NPL ratio, capital adequacy, liquidity, number of banks.
- Switch TV, September 2026. https://news.switchtv.ke/2026/09/cbk-raises-alarm-as-35-banks-breach-rules/ — the reported count of banks flagged for prudential breaches.
- Central Bank of Kenya — press release: transfer of the business, assets and liabilities of Access Bank (Kenya) PLC to National Bank of Kenya Limited, 23 September 2026. https://www.centralbank.go.ke/press/ — the transfer.
- The Star, 23 September 2026. https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2026-09-23-cbk-approves-access-bank-nbk-asset-transfer — the statutory approvals and their dates, and NBK's ownership.
- Nairobi Securities Exchange — Market Statistics. https://www.nse.co.ke/dataservices/market-statistics/ — NASI 248.51 and capitalisation KSh 4,170.52 billion on 25 September; NASI 245.85 and capitalisation KSh 4,125.87 billion as of 29 September, read on 30 September 2026.
- People Daily, 19 September 2026. https://peopledaily.digital/business/nse-shares-fall-sharply-wiping-out-ksh336b-as-cbk-flags-market-pressure — the prior week's sell-off, citing the CBK Weekly Bulletin for the week to 17 September.
- People Daily, 25 September 2026. https://peopledaily.digital/business/domestic-bond-trading-surges-to-ksh71-2-billion — CBK Weekly Bulletin for the week to 24 September: shilling 129.48, reserves KSh 1.95 trillion and 6.1 months import cover, KESONIA 8.75%, bond turnover KSh 71.2 billion, T-bill performance ratio 149%.
- Standard Investment Bank — Kenya Weekly Market Wrap, 28 September 2026. https://sib.co.ke/reports/kenya-weekly-market-wrap-28-september-2026/ — weekly index moves, foreign participation, top movers.
- Central Bank of Kenya — Treasury bill auction results dated 28 September 2026. https://www.centralbank.go.ke/uploads/91_day_historical_treasury_bill_results/2049865152_RESULTS%202700-091%202675-182%202630-364%20DATED%2028-09-2026.pdf — 91, 182 and 364-day weighted average accepted rates.
- The Kenya Times, 24 September 2026. https://thekenyatimes.com/business/cbk-treasury-bonds-bid/ — the KSh 100 billion bond reopening, coupons, bid closing and settlement dates.
- Central Bank of Kenya — homepage indicative rates. https://www.centralbank.go.ke/ — USD/KES 129.76 posted 29 September 2026, CBR 8.75% (11 August 2026), inflation 6.6% (August 2026). Verified 30 September 2026.
- Kenya National Bureau of Statistics — Consumer Price Indices and Inflation Rates, August 2026. https://www.knbs.or.ke/reports/consumer-price-indices-and-inflation-rates-august-2026/ — the 6.6% August inflation rate.
- The Kenyan Wall Street, 25 and 28 September 2026. https://kenyanwallstreet.com/milk-intake-retail-shortages and https://kenyanwallstreet.com/dangote-lamu-refinery — Kenya Dairy Board milk intake data; the reported Lamu refinery groundbreaking and financing.
- Business Daily, 28 December 2025. https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/markets/currencies/why-the-shilling-remained-at-sh129-to-dollar-for-16-months-5310456 — background only: the 16-month stability of the shilling and the IMF's concern.
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